TROPICAL STORM DANTE (CHOI-WAN) ADVISORY NO. 09

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 02 June 2021
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 02 June 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm DANTE (CHOI-WAN) has rapidly accelerated westward and crossed Masbate early this morning with no change in strength…now traversing Romblon Area while moving west to west-northwest towards Oriental Mindoro-Batangas Area.

Its western & southern rainbands together with its trough (extension) will continue to affectVisayas, MiMaRoPa, portions of the Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, and portions of Central Luzon. Occasional rains with scattered Severe thunderstorms and gusty winds will be expected across these areas today.

24-hr Outlook: TS DANTE is forecast to move west-northwestward for the next 12 hours & will turn more to the northwest at a decreased forward speed of 18 km/hr…and is likely to weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) once it traverses Western Luzon.  Based on its forecast, the core of DANTE will pass very close or make landfall along the eastern shoreline of Oriental Mindoro later this afternoon, then make landfall along Batangas-Cavite Area early tonight. It will then be over Bataan by early tomorrow morning (Jun 03).

Where is DANTE (CHOI-WAN)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, June 02…2300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over Sibuyan Sea, near the Eastern Coast of Sibuyan Island (12.3°N 122.9°E)
  • Distance 1: 75 km east-southeast of Romblon
  • Distance 2: 71 km west of Masbate City, Masbate
  • Distance 3: 85 km north-northeast of Roxas City, Capiz
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 38 kph, towards Romblon-Oriental Mindoro-Batangas-Cavite-Bataan Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 03:  Over Romblon Island, between 6 to 7 AM  today – with High Strike Probability of >90%. 
  • Landfall 04:  Somewhere along Oriental Mindoro or Batangas, between 2 to 5 PM  today – with High Strike Probability of >90%. 
  • Landfall 05:  Over Bataan, between 12 to 2 AM  tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Visayas and MiMaRoPa – Today.
  • Metro Manila, Central & Southern Luzon – beginning Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Bataan as it weakens into a TD while moving northward…about 12 km WNW of Balanga City, Bataan [2AM Jun 03: 14.7°N 120.4°E @ 55 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over West Philippine Sea, passing along the western portion of the Balintang & Bashi Channels…about 211 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM Jun 04: 19.7°N 119.2°E @ 45 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a remnant low (LPA) while accelerating NE-ward across the East Taiwan Sea…about 215 km ENE of Taitung, Taiwan [2AM Jun 05: 23.4°N 123.1°E @ 35 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (480 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=CHOI-WAN

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals_dante.png)

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