Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 14 May 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 15 May 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Depression (TD) CRISING has maintained its strength as it accelerated further west-northwestward across  Zamboanga Peninsula…now starting to emerge over the Sulu Sea.

This depression including its trough will continue to bring scattered to widespread rains with severe thunderstorms and squalls across most parts of Mindanao particularly Zamboanga Peninsula today.

24-hr Outlook: TD CRISING is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across Sulu Sea at a faster forward speed of 28 km/hr, and will pass south of Cagayancillo Island by early tomorrow morning (Sat). By tomorrow afternoon, CRISING will emerge over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Central Palawan and is likely to weaken into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA).

Where is CRISING? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 14…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Sindangan, Zamboanga Del Norte (near 8.2°N 123.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 51 km southwest of Dipolog City, Zamboanga Del Norte
  • Distance 2: 78 km north-northwest of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Del Sur
  • Distance 3: 250 km southeast of Cagayancillo, Palawan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 31 kph, towards Sulu Sea-Palawan  Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • N/A (System’s over land)
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Zamboanga Peninsula – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Central Palawan…weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA)…about 86 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM May 15: 9.9°N 118.0°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 175 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (310 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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