TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISING ADVISORY NO. 05

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 14 May 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 14 May 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Depression (TD) CRISING has accelerated westward across the rugged terrains of Central Mindanao as it struggle to reorganize.

This depression including its trough will continue to bring scattered to widespread rains with severe thunderstorms and squalls across most parts of Mindanao today.

24-hr Outlook: TD CRISING is forecast to move west-northwestward across Western Mindanao at an increased forward speed of 26 km/hr and will continue losing strength. It will traverse the provinces of Lanao, Southern Misamis Occidental and the northern part of Zamboanga Del Norte this afternoon. By late tonight through tomorrow morning (Sat), CRISING will emerge over the Sulu Sea as it weakens into an LPA, passing just south of Cagayancillo Island.

Where is CRISING? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, May 14…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Lumba-Bayabao, Lanao Del Sur (near 7.7°N 124.6°E)
  • Distance 1: 48 km southeast of Marawi City, Lanao Del Sur
  • Distance 2: 68 km northeast of Cotabato City, Cotabato
  • Distance 3: 75 km southwest of Malaybalay City, Bukidnon
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 22 kph, towards Lanao Provinces-Southern Misamis Occidental-Northern Zamboanga Del Norte  Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • N/A (System’s over land)
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Some Portions of  Mindanao – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) while moving WNW across the Sulu Sea…about 137 km ESE of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM May 15: 9.4°N 119.9°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 100 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (250 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

:: Now Lowered ::

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals_crising.png)

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