TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISING ADVISORY NO. 03

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 14 May 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 14 May 2021
Current Status & Outlook CRISING just a Tropical Depression (TD) as it continues to deteriorate…accelerates westward, and  made landfall over Davao Oriental, near the town of Baganga a few hours ago.

This depression will continue to bring scattered to occasional rains with severe thunderstorms and gusty winds across Eastern, Central & Northern Mindanao particularly Davao Region and portions of Caraga Region today.

24-hr Outlook: TD CRISING is forecast to move west-northwestward across Mindanao at a forward speed of 18 km/hr and will continue losing strength. It will traverse the provinces of Davao De Oro, Davao Del Norte, Bukidnon, the northern part of Lanao Provinces, Misamis Occidental, & the northern tip of Zamboanga Del Norte today – between this early morning until the evening.  There is a possibility that Crising may be downgraded into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) earlier than forecasted – this is due to the rugged, mountainous terrains of Mindanao. 

Where is CRISING? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, May 13…1500 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Davao Oriental (near 7.5°N 126.4°E)
  • Distance 1: 64 km north-northeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental
  • Distance 2: 110 km east-northeast of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
  • Distance 3: 141 km east-southeast of Valencia City, Bukidnon
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 20 kph, towards Davao De Oro-Del Norte Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • N/A (System’s over land)
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Portions of Eastern, Central & Northern Mindanao – today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens further as it emerges off the coastal area of Dipolog City while moving WNW…about 33 km WNW of Dapitan City, Zamboanga Del Norte [8PM May 14: 8.7°N 123.1°E @ 45 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • SATURDAY EVENING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Central Palawan…just a Tropical Disturbance (LPA)…about 86 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM May 15: 10.0°N 118.0°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Small/Midget (220 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

:: None yet. Will be available once RSMC’s Tokyo Typhoon Center (JMA) upgrades it into a Tropical Storm ::

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals_crising.png)

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