TROPICAL STORM CRISING ADVISORY NO. 02

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 May 2021
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 14 May 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm (TS) CRISING has become slightly disorganized while moving closer to Davao Region, but maintained its strength during the past 06 hours. Landfall expected along Davao Oriental by early tomorrow morning.

This storm will bring scattered to occasional rains with severe thunderstorms and gusty winds across Eastern, Central & Northern Mindanao particularly Davao Region and portions of Caraga Region today through tomorrow (Fri).

24-hr Outlook: TS CRISING is forecast to move west to west-northwestward across the coastal waters of Davao Oriental at a forward speed of 15 km/hr, while maintaining its strength prior in making landfall. After making landfall over the coastline of Davao Oriental early tomorrow morning, TS CRISING is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves across the landmass of Mindanao, and traverse Davao De Oro and Del Norte by mid-morning tomorrow, and shall be in the vicinity of Bukidnon by tomorrow afternoon.

Where is Crising? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 13…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Approaching the coastal waters of Davao Oriental (near 7.4°N 127.5°E)
  • Distance 1: 147 km east-northeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental
  • Distance 2: 227 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
  • Distance 3: 262 km east of Valencia City, Bukidnon
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 17 kph, towards Davao Region.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Over Davao Oriental, between 12 to 3 AM Tomorrow (Friday, May 14) – with High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Eastern & Central Mindanao – beginning tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a TD as it traverses Bukidnon, on its way to Lanao-Misamis Occidental Area…about 40 km S of Cagayan De Oro City, Misamis Oriental [2PM May 14: 8.1°N 124.7°E @ 65 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Palawan as a minimal TD over the Sulu Sea, accelerating further to the WNW…about 113 km E of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM May 15: 9.8°N 119.8°E @ 45 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Just a decaying LPA over the West Philippine Sea, as it exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 448 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  [2PM May 16: 10.9°N 114.8°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 225 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (360 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

:: None yet. Will be available once RSMC’s Tokyo Typhoon Center (JMA) upgrades it into a Tropical Storm ::

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals_crising.png)

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