TROPICAL STORM CRISING ADVISORY NO. 01

Issued at: 11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 May 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 May 2021
Current Status & Outlook The small but active Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the South Philippine Sea has rapidly intensified into a Tropical Cyclone with local name “CRISING”…now a Tropical Storm (TS) as it continues to gain strength while moving closer to Davao Oriental.

This storm will bring occasional rains and gusty winds across Davao Region and portions of Caraga Region beginning late today through Friday morning.

24-hr Outlook: TS CRISING is forecast to intensify slightly and accelerate, west to west-northwestward across the coastal waters of Davao Oriental at an increased forward speed of 19 km/hr. It is expected to make landfall over Davao Oriental early tomorrow morning (Fri) and traverse Davao De Oro and Davao Del Norte throughout Friday morning. After making landfall, the storm will rapidly weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD).

Where is Crising? As of 8:00 AM PhT today, May 13…0000 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Approaching the coastal waters of Davao Oriental (near 7.2°N 129.2°E)
  • Distance 1: 327 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
  • Distance 2: 375 km east of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
  • Distance 3: 396 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 13 kph, across the South Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Over Davao Oriental, between 12 to 3 AM Tomorrow (Friday, May 14) – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Eastern & Central Mindanao – beginning tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY MORNING: Makes landfall over Davao Region…passing over Davao De Oro-Del Norte Area as a weakened TD…about 30 km NNW of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte [8AM May 14: 7.7°N 125.7°E @ 55 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens further as it passes over or near Cagayancillo Island in the Sulu Sea…about 129 km WSW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental [8AM May 15: 9.3°N 121.4°E @ 45 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • SUNDAY MORNING: Accelerates rapidly WNW-ward after traversing Palawan and weakens into an LPA while over the West Philippine Sea…about 309 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  [8AM May 16: 10.4°N 116.0°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (415 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

:: None yet. Will be available once RSMC’s Tokyo Typhoon Center (JMA) upgrades it into a Tropical Storm ::

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals_crising.png)

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