SUPER TYPHOON BISING (SURIGAE) ADVISORY NO. 05

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 18 April 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 18 April 2021
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon BISING (SURIGAE) is now an extremely catastrophic category 5 system after rapidly intensifying over the past 12 hours, making it the most powerful typhoon ever formed in the month of April in the Western Pacific Ocean – since the start of the operational Dvorak Analysis in the 1980s. It has now 1-min. sustained winds of 305 km/hr (based on the JTWC data).

This typhoon is expected to bring occasional rains with severe thunderstorms and gusty winds across Samar and Bicol Provinces today and tomorrow.  

24-hr Outlook: STY BISING (SURIGAE) is forecast to pass well to the east of Catanduanes, more or less 220 km away from the island province by 2:00 AM early tomorrow morning. It is expected to move west-northwestward across the western portion of the Central Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 11 km/hr. This cyclone will therefore weaken to minimal Super Typhoon strength within the next 12 to 24 hours as it undergoes an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC).

Where is BISING (SURIGAE)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, April 18…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the western portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.0°N 128.1°E)
  • Distance 1: 443 km east of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
  • Distance 2: 415 km east of Bato, Catanduanes
  • Distance 3: 535 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 305 kph near the center…Gustiness: 370 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 19 kph, across the Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas – Today & Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Eastern & Northern Catanduanes – Late Tonight until Tomorrow  Morning or Afternoon. 
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Eastern Visayas & Bicol Region.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 4 Super Typhoon (STY) as it moves WNW-ward across the western portion of the Central Philippine Sea, near the waters of Eastern Catanduanes…about 221 km ENE of Bato, Catanduaens [2AM Apr 19: 14.1°N 126.3°E @ 250 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further below STY classification, just a strong Category 3 Typhoon (TY) while moving slowly NNW to N across the Central Philippine Sea farther away from Catanduanes…about 256 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Apr 20: 15.5°N 126.0°E @ 205 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its decaying trend, just a Category 2 TY while moving slowly NNW-ward across the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea…about 308 km E of Palanan, Isabela  [2AM Apr 21: 17.1°N 125.3°E @ 175 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 750 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 895 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Medium (895 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Medium (780 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 220 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=SURIGAE

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals_bising.png)

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