TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (DUJUAN) ADVISORY NO. 10

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 22 February 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 22 February 2021
Current Status & Outlook AURING (DUJUAN) has weakened once again into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it begins to cross Leyte and the northern parts of Visayas. This system will start to decay upon crossing the rugged terrain of Visayas today.  

Meanwhile, its rainbands together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to bring rains and thunderstorms across Visayas, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, and CaLaBaRZon including Metro Manila today.

24-hr Outlook: TD AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to decay into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) once the system reaches Romblon-Mindoro Area later tonight, and will continue moving WNW-ward at a decreased forward speed of 22 kph. It will be in the vicinity of Oriental Mindoro by early tomorrow morning (Tue Feb 23). 

Where is AURING (DUJUAN)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 22…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Just along the eastern coast of Leyte  (near 10.6°N 125.3°E)
  • Distance 1: 49 km east of Baybay City, Leyte
  • Distance 2: 70 km northeast of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
  • Distance 3: 147 km east-northeast of Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 25 kph, towards Sibuyan Sea-Romblon Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Eastern Leyte this morning – with High Strike Probability of 100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • BICOL REGION, CALABARZON, SOME PARTS OF VISAYAS – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Oriental Mindoro as it weakens into an LPA…about 73 km SSW of Boac, Marinduque [2AM Feb 23: 12.8°N 121.6°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (665 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=DUJUAN

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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