TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (DUJUAN) ADVISORY NO. 08

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 21 February 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 21 February 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Depression AURING (DUJUAN) still fighting to survive despite unfavorable upper-level environment…begins accelerating West-Northwestward towards Northeastern Mindanao and Eastern Visayas. This system is likely to weaken into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) upon crossing Visayas on Monday.    

24-hr Outlook: TD AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to maintain its strength and track across the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea, and into Leyte Gulf with a forward speed of 25 km/hr. 

Where is AURING (DUJUAN)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 21…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the middle part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 8.5°N 129.4°E)
  • Distance 1: 344 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
  • Distance 2: 449 km east-southeast of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
  • Distance 3: 573 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 24 kph, towards Northeastern Mindanao-Eastern Visayas Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Over Northern Leyte, between 2 to 4 PM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Medium Strike Probability of 60-70%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • CARAGA & EASTERN VISAYAS – Today.
  • REST OF VISAYAS – Late Today until Tomorrow, Monday (Feb 22).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Leyte Gulf as it prepares to make landfall over Northern Leyte, turns westward…about 49 km WSW of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Feb 22: 10.9°N 125.3°E @ 55 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Decays into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) while passing over Cuyo Island in the Sulu Archipelago…about 150 km SSE of Coron, Palawan [2AM Feb 23: 10.9°N 120.9°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (600 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=DUJUAN

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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