Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 20 February 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 21 February 2021
Current Status & Outlook AURING (DUJUAN) has weakened rapidly into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it continues to encounter strong upper-level winds (aka. wind shear) over the South Philippine Sea…still expected to bring some rains across Northeastern Mindanao and the Visayas late Sunday through Monday.    

24-hr Outlook: TD AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to move west-northwestward across the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea with an increased forward speed of 28 km/hr. This cyclone is expected to be within the 45 and 55 km/hr TD threshold through tomorrow afternoon (Feb 21).

Where is AURING (DUJUAN)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, February 20…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the middle part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 7.6°N 131.2°E)
  • Distance 1: 546 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
  • Distance 2: 579 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
  • Distance 3: 635 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Northeastern Mindanao-Eastern Visayas Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Over Siargao-Dinagat Islands, between 3 to 8 PM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Medium Strike Probability of 40-50%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • CARAGA REGION – Tonight to Early Sunday.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its TD classification as it moves WNW across the coastal areas of Dinagat-Siargao Island Group…about 101 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte [2PM Feb 21: 10.0°N 126.4°E @ 55 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: Decays into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) while passing across the Pamalican and Amanpulo Islands in the Sulu Archipelago…about 148 km W of Paasi City, Iloilo [2PM Feb 22: 11.3°N 121.3°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (825 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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