Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 20 February 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 20 February 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm AURING (DUJUAN) has again remained quasi-stationary with its center relocated further to the south. The system is having a hard time developing as it encounters moderate to strong upper-level winds (wind shear) over the area. However, its rainbands will still move across Northeastern Mindanao and Visayas today through Sunday.    

24-hr Outlook: TS AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to move northwestward across the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea with an increased forward speed of 15 km/hr. This cyclone is expected to weaken to 75 km/hr by tomorrow morning (Feb 21).

Where is AURING (DUJUAN)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 20…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Relocated over the southern part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 6.4°N 130.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 425 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
  • Distance 2: 454 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
  • Distance 3: 505 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) Quasi-Stationary, over the South Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Over Siargao-Dinagat Islands, between 1 to 3 PM Sunday, Feb 21 – with High Strike Probability of 70-80%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • CARAGA REGION – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it accelerates northwestward across the NW Part of the South Philippine Sea…about 320 km ESE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte [2AM Feb 21: 8.5°N 128.1°E @ 75 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • MONDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Northern Negros, just barely a Tropical Storm (TS) as it weakens further while moving faster westward across the Visayas…about 33 km E of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental [2AM Feb 22: 10.7°N 123.3°E @ 65 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of the Northern Tip of Palawan (El Nido), weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves West to WNW towards the West Philippine Sea…about 31 km NW of El Nido, Palawan  [2AM Feb 23: 11.4°N 119.3°E @ 55 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (665 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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