Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 19 February 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 20 February 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm AURING (DUJUAN) has intensified further during the past 12 hours while moving westward slowly. However, its overall structure has deteriorated during the past 3 hours. Despite this new development, the storm is still expected to traverse Northeastern Mindanao and Visayas this Sunday.  

24-hr Outlook: TS AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 06 km/hr. This cyclone is expected to become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) tomorrow.

Where is AURING (DUJUAN)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, February 19…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the mid-central part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 7.1°N 129.8°E)
  • Distance 1: 393 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
  • Distance 2: 458 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
  • Distance 3: 512 km east-southeast of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 09 kph, across the South Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Over Siargao-Dinagat Islands, between 1 to 3 PM Sunday, Feb 21 – with High Strike Probability of 70-80%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • CARAGA & DAVAO REGION – beginning Saturday Afternoon (Feb 20).
  • VISAYAS – beginning Sunday (Feb 21).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into an STS while turning slowly WNW-ward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea…about 288 km ENE of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 20: 7.5°N 128.8°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens rapidly into a TS as it makes landfall over Dinagat & Siargao Islands. Accelerates NW to WNW towards Southern Leyte-Northern Cebu Area…about 35 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte [2PM Feb 21: 9.9°N 125.8°E @ 75 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further as it turns westward, passing very near the Southern Coast of Mindoro…about 122 km E of Coron, Palawan  [2PM Feb 22: 12.0°N 121.3°E @ 65 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 700 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (560 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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