Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 19 February 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 19 February 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm AURING (DUJUAN) has remained Quasi-Stationary over the South Philippine Sea during the past 12 hours with little change in strength. This cyclone is forecast to cross Caraga Region and the Visayas this weekend.

24-hr Outlook: TS AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to move slowly westward across the South Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 09 km/hr. This cyclone is expected to continue intensifying through Saturday morning  (Feb 20).

Where is AURING (DUJUAN)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 19…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the mid-central part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 7.2°N 131.6°E)
  • Distance 1: 591 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
  • Distance 2: 635 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
  • Distance 3: 678 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 04 kph, across the South Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Surigao Del Sur, between 8 to 10 AM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Medium Strike Probability of 50%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • CARAGA & DAVAO REGION – beginning Saturday Afternoon (Feb 20).
  • VISAYAS – beginning Sunday (Feb 21).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further while moving slowly Westward across the South Philippine Sea…about 404 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2AM Feb 20: 7.2°N 129.9°E @ 85 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it turns WNW across the South Philippine Sea, closer to the coastal areas of Surigao Del Sur…about 167 km E of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Feb 21: 8.1°N 127.8°E @ 85 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a minimal TS as it traverses Central & Western Visayas. Just along the Southern Tip of Guimaras…about 36 km S of Iloilo City, Iloilo  [2AM Feb 22: 10.4°N 122.5°E @ 65 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (695 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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