Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 February 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 19 February 2021
Current Status & Outlook AURING becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northwestward slowly across the South Philippine Sea. It is now known internationally as “DUJUAN” (pronounced as “Tu-Tiyen”) – a Chinese word for the tree Azalea.

24-hr Outlook: TS AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to move westward slowly across the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 11 km/hr. This cyclone is expected to continue intensifying through tomorrow, Friday afternoon.

Where is AURING (DUJUAN)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, February 18…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the mid-central part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 7.3°N 132.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 636 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
  • Distance 2: 673 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
  • Distance 3: 722 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 07 kph, across the South Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Surigao Del Sur, between 12 to 2 AM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Low Strike Probability of 40%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • CARAGA & DAVAO REGION – beginning Saturday Afternoon (Feb 20).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further while moving slowly Westward across the South Philippine Sea…about 416 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 19: 7.3°N 130.0°E @ 85 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while maintaining its westward movement across the South Philippine Sea, closer to the coastal areas of Eastern Mindanao…about 265 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 20: 7.4°N 128.6°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Turns WNW while traversing Bohol Sea, and approaching the southern part of Central Visayas as a weakened TS…about 44 km SSE of Tagbilaran City, Bohol  [2PM Feb 21: 9.3°N 124.0°E @ 75 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (590 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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