TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING ADVISORY NO. 02

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 February 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 February 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Depression AURING moving very slowly over the South Philippine Sea and has slightly intensified during the past 12 hours. Threat to Visayas and Mindanao this weekend continues.

24-hr Outlook: TD AURING is forecast to move very slowly, west-northwestward across the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 08 km/hr. This cyclone could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today.

Where is AURING? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 18…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the Southeastern Part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 6.8°N 132.6°E)
  • Distance 1: 702 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
  • Distance 2: 753 km east of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
  • Distance 3: 790 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 04 kph, across the South Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Surigao Del Sur, between 12 to 2 AM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Low Strike Probability of 30-40%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • CARAGA & DAVAO REGION – beginning Saturday Afternoon (Feb 20).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while moving slowly WNW to West over the South Philippine Sea…about 558 km E of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Feb 19: 7.5°N 131.3°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens further as it moves West to WNW across the South Philippine Sea…about 393 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2AM Feb 20: 7.2°N 129.8°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over the southern part of Surigao Del Sur while accelerating WNW towards NE Mindanao…about 23 km NNW of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur  [2AM Feb 21: 8.4°N 126.2°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 820 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (690 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

:: NONE ::

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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