TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING ADVISORY NO. 01

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 17 February 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 February 2021
Current Status & Outlook A newly-formed Tropical Depression with local name “AURING” has entered the southeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning. It is forecast to threaten and affect Mindanao and Visayas this weekend.

24-hr Outlook: TD AURING is forecast to move very slowly, northwestward over the South Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 03 km/hr. This cyclone could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by tomorrow morning.

Where is AURING? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, February 17…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the Southeastern Part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 6.7°N 133.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 746 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
  • Distance 2: 798 km east of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
  • Distance 3: 835 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 13 kph, across the South Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Siargao-Dinagat-Surigao Del Norte Area, between 7 to 9 AM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Low Strike Probability of <30%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a TS status while moving very NW slowly over the South Philippine Sea…about 690 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 18: 7.1°N 132.5°E @ 75 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it maintains its westerly track over the South Philippine Sea…about 536 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 19: 6.9°N 131.1°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Turns WNW to NW across the South Philippine Sea with increasing forward speed, approaching the coastal areas of Northern Caraga…about 308 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental  [2PM Feb 20: 7.4°N 129.0°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (670 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

:: NONE ::

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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