TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) AGATON (MEGI) ADVISORY NO. 06 **FINAL**

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 April 2022
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Depression AGATON (MEGI) has weakened considerably into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it drifts back eastward across Northern Leyte…expected to emerge over the Philippine Sea within the next 12-24 hours.

*This is the Final Advisory on this Tropical Cyclone.

24-hr Outlook: The remnants of AGATON is forecast to weaken further while traversing ESE @ 11 kph across the northern part of Leyte Gulf or along the southern coastline of Eastern Samar. By early tomorrow morning, its remnants will be well over the Philippine Sea, as it becomes a part of  Typhoon Malakas’  large circulation.

Meanwhile, Severe Tropical Storm (STS) MALAKAS has intensified into a 120-kph Typhoon as it remains outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). New forecast suggests the large typhoon may no longer enter PAR as it continues to track north towards the sea south of Japan.

Where is AGATON (MEGI)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, April 12…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Capoocan, Leyte (near 11.3°N 124.6°E)
  • Distance 1: 29 km north of Ormoc City, Leyte
  • Distance 2: 40 km west of Tacloban City, Leyte
  • Distance 3: 85 km south of Calbayog City, Samar
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 55 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) East-Southeast @ 06 kph, towards Leyte Gulf-Philippine Sea Area.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • N/A, as the system is now overland (Northern Leyte).
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Visayas.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Its remnants emerges over the Philippine Sea as it starts to accelerate ESE-ward, into the large circulation of Typhoon Malakas…about 110 km ESE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Apr 13: 10.8°N 126.7°E @ 35 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW
  • THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Just a Shallow LPA as its circulation has merged into the large circulation of Typhoon Malakas while moving across the Philippine Sea…about 822 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Apr 14: 11.4°N 133.3°E @ 20 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (500 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): None
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL


Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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