TROPICAL STORM AGATON (MEGI) ADVISORY NO. 03

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 10 April 2022
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 11 April 2022
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm AGATON (MEGI) has moved slowly across Leyte Gulf, and after reaching its peak intensity of 75 km/hr this morning, its circulation has started to deteriorate…weakening slightly. The rain circulation of this storm has spread across the Visayas including Romblon. 

24-hr Outlook: TS AGATON is forecast to drift slowly, NW to WNW @ 6 kph and will make landfall along Tacloban Area early tomorrow morning, weakening into a Tropical Depression as it will again stall over the area into the afternoon.

Meanwhile, a much larger and stronger – Severe Tropical Storm (STS) MALAKAS has been racing towards the west-northwest and could become a Typhoon by tomorrow.  This cyclone is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday (Apr 12) and will start assimilating TS AGATON (MEGI) before recurving towards the North.  Therefore, STS MALAKAS is not a threat to any part of the country.

Where is AGATON (MEGI)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, April 10…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Eastern Leyte (near 10.7°N 125.3°E)
  • Distance 1: 49 km east of Baybay City, Leyte
  • Distance 2: 72 km south-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
  • Distance 3: 83 km east-southeast of Ormoc City, Leyte
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) Southwest @ 07 kph, along Leyte Gulf.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Along the Northern Part of Leyte – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Eastern & Central Visayas, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island including Dinagat Island Group.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) while over Northern Leyte…about 45 km NW of Ormoc City, Leyte [2PM Apr 11: 11.3°N 124.3°E @ 45 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW
  • TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Decays into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) while moving slowly eastward across Northern Leyte…about 7 km NE of Tacloban City, Leyte [2PM Apr 12: 11.3°N 125.0°E @ 35 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW
  • WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates rapidly East to ENE-ward across the Philippine Sea…completely assimilated into the southern circulation of STS MALAKAS…about 404 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Apr 13: 11.5°N 129.4°E @ 20 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (520 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Midget (<125 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL


Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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